Curriculum Vitae (pdf)

508 Saunders Hall, 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96822
fuleky@hawaii.edu · 808-956-7840 · http://www2.hawaii.edu/~fuleky/

Updated: Mar 11, 2025

Contact

Peter Fuleky
UHERO and Department of Economics, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
508 Saunders Hall, 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96822
fuleky@hawaii.edu · 808-956-7840 · http://www2.hawaii.edu/~fuleky/

Education

Ph.D. in Economics 2009
- University of Washington
- Dissertation: Indirect Estimation Methods for Continuous Time Models of the Interest Rate
- Fields of concentration: Econometrics, Time Series Analysis
M.B.A. 2002
- Florida State University
- Field of concentration: Finance
M.S. in Civil Engineering 1997
- Czech Technical University
- Thesis: Numerical Analysis of Bridge Dynamics Using the Finite Element Method
- Studied at the Vienna University of Technology (Austria), 1995–96

Professional Experience

Professor 2023 — present
- UHERO and Department of Economics, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Fulbright Scholar 2024
- Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies, Budapest, Hungary
Associate Professor 2016 — 2023
- UHERO and Department of Economics, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Visiting Researcher 2017 — 2018
- Central European University, Budapest, Hungary
Assistant Professor 2011 — 2016
- UHERO and Department of Economics, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Postdoctoral Fellow 2010 — 2011
- University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO)
Economist and Securities Trader 2002 — 2005
- International Trading Group, Jacksonville, FL
Management Consultant 1998 — 2000
- Czipin & Partner, Prague, Czech Republic

Teaching

University of Hawaiʻi, Department of Economics

ECON 427 — Economic Forecasting (Fall 2011–16, 2018–19, 2021–23)
ECON 628 — Econometrics I (Spring 2013–17, 2019–22, 2024–25)
ECON 629 — Econometrics II (Fall 2010; co-instructor responsible for time series topics)
ECON 630 — Econometrics III (Fall 2020, Spring 2023)

University of Hawaiʻi, Shidler College of Business

FIN 652 — Programming in Finance (Fall 2009)

University of Washington, Department of Economics

ECON 300 — Intermediate Microeconomics (2007–09)
ECON 201 — Introduction to Macroeconomics (2006)
ECON 200 — Introduction to Microeconomics (2006)

Advising

Max Hammermesh (Honors BA, 2011), William DuPont (PhD, 2013), Qianxue Zhao (PhD, 2014, Co-chair), Yi-wen Yang (PhD, 2017), Cheryl Geslani Scarton (PhD, 2017), Kyeongkuk Kim (PhD, 2018), Jonathan Sweeney (PhD, 2018), Oleg Ivanets (PhD, 2018), Jaeseong Lim (PhD, 2018), Nick Borum (MA, 2018), Sisi Zhang (MA, 2019), Samuel Ha (PhD, 2019), Nathaniel Lee (MA, 2020, Chair), Isabelle Picciotto (MA, 2020, Chair), Nathan DeMaagd (PhD, 2020), Joshua Hu (Honors BA, 2021), Rachel Inafuku (PhD, 2022), Mel Maya Ward (PhD, 2023), Minh D. Nguyen (PhD, 2023), Ian Rees (MA, 2023), Tonga Ahokovi (Honors BA, 2024), Joonwoo Lee (PhD, 2025), Tyler Wheeler (MA, 2025), Helen Hastedt (MA, current), Luke Miller (PhD, current), Sadichchha Shresta (PhD, current).

Refereed Journal Publications

* denotes advisee

Truax, K., Dulai, H., Misra, A., Kuhne, W., Fuleky, P., Smith, C., Garces, M. (2023). Laser-Induced Fluorescence for Monitoring Environmental Contamination and Stress in the Moss Thuidium plicatile. Plants, 12(17), 3124. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants12173124
Adyasari, D., Dimova, N., Dulai, H., Gilfedder, B., Cartwright, I., McKenzie, T., Fuleky, P. (2023). Radon-222 as a groundwater discharge tracer to surface waters. Earth-Science Reviews. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104321
Bond-Smith, S., and Fuleky, P. (2022). The Effects of the Pandemic on Hawaii’s Economy. Current Issues in Tourism. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2022.2151875
Truax, K., Dulai, H., Misra, A., Kuhne, W., Fuleky, P. (2022). Quantifying Moss Response to Metal Contaminant Exposure Using Laser-Induced Fluorescence. Applied Sciences, 12(22), 11580. https://doi.org/10.3390/app122211580
DeMaagd, N.*, Fuleky, P., Burnett, K., and Wada, C. (2022). Tourism Water Use During the Covid-19 Shutdown, A Natural Experiment in Hawaii. Annals of Tourism Research, 97(1), 103475. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2022.103475
Fuleky, P., and Szapudi, I. (2022). Bird’s Eye View of COVID-19, Mobility, and Labor Market Outcomes Across the US. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 6, 339–353. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-022-00110-0
McKenzie, T., Dulai, H., and Fuleky, P. (2021). Traditional and novel time-series approaches reveal submarine groundwater discharge dynamics under baseline and extreme event conditions. Scientific Reports, 11, 22570. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01920-0
Fuleky, P. (2021). Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery. Applied Economics Letters, 29(11), 1037–1041. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2021.1907278
Fuleky, P., Ventura, L., and Zhao, Q.* (2018). Common Correlated Effects and International Risk Sharing. International Finance, 21(1), 55–70. https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12119
Hirashima, A.*, Jones, J.*, Bonham, C. S., and Fuleky, P. (2017). Forecasting in a Mixed Up World: Nowcasting Hawaii Tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 63(1), 191–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2017.01.007
- The paper received the Polzin Prize for Best Paper at the fall 2016 AUBER conference.
- Working paper title: Nowcasting Tourism Industry Performance Using High Frequency Covariates.
Fuleky, P., and Ventura, L. (2016). Mean Lag in General Error Correction Models. Economics Letters, 143, 107–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.03.028
Fuleky, P., Ventura, L., and Zhao, Q.* (2015). International Risk Sharing in the Short and in the Long Run under Country Heterogeneity. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 20(4), 374–384. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1524
Fuleky, P., and Bonham, C. S. (2015). Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Factor Models in the Presence of Common Trends. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19(4), 753–775. https://doi.org/10.1017/S136510051300059X
Fuleky, P., and Zivot, E. (2014). Indirect Inference Based on the Score. Econometrics Journal, 17(3), 383–393. https://doi.org/10.1111/ectj.12028
Fuleky, P., Zhao, Q.*, and Bonham, C. S. (2014). Estimating Demand Elasticities in Non-Stationary Panels. Annals of Tourism Research, 44(1), 131–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2013.09.006
Fuleky, P. (2012). On the Choice of the Unit Period in Time Series Models. Applied Economics Letters, 19(12), 1179–1182. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2011.617685

Books and Chapters

Fuleky, P. (Ed.). (2020). Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data: Theory and Practice. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-31150-6
Doz, C., and Fuleky, P. (2020). Dynamic Factor Models. In: Fuleky, P. (Ed.), Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data (pp. 27–64). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-31150-6_2

Scholarly Work in Progress

Coincident Index of Economic Conditions in Hawaii
Estimating Permitting Delays (with Isabelle Picciotto*)
Real-Time Benchmarking of Non-farm Payrolls
Forecasting Multi-Equation Behavioral Models with R (book)
Rainfall, Fire Risk and Housing Prices in Hawaii (with Talal Khan*, Nori Tarui and Makena Coffman), submitted to Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
Forecast Scenarios Under Climate Change

UHERO Forecast Reports

Federal cuts raise risk of Hawaii downturn Feb 2025
Outlook more uncertain as federal policy changes loom Dec 2024
Lagging Maui recovery, slower speed limit for Hawaii growth Sep 2024
Expansion intact, but counties poised for slower growth May 2024
Near-term slowing expected as pandemic recovery ends Feb 2024
State facing headwinds as Maui recovery begins Dec 2023
Wildfires deliver heavy blow to Maui economy Sep 2023
Promise and Peril for the Hawaii Economy May 2023
Hawaii’s Soft Landing Still in the Cards Mar 2023
Global war on inflation will hinder Hawaii growth Dec 2022
US recession will weigh on Hawaii’s recovery Sep 2022
Foreign visitors will provide lift, but risks have multiplied May 2022
With Omicron in the rearview mirror, a clearer road ahead? Mar 2022
Recovery resumes, but Omicron looms Dec 2021
Delta wave swamps tourism, but return to recovery expected Sep 2021
Vaccinations and US Strength Drive Upgraded Hawaii Forecast May 2021
More Substantial Recovery in Sight Feb 2021
Mainland COVID-19 surge means a bleak winter, but vaccines promise 2021 growth Dec 2020
State Forecast Update: Hawaii in Early Stages of Recovery, Then a Setback Sep 2020
Forecast with Scenario Analysis: Battered by COVID-19, Hawaii Begins to Reopen May 2020
Interim Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Economy is Shut Down to Deal with COVID-19 Mar 2020
Interim Forecast Update: COVID-19 Will Impose Significant Economic Impacts in Hawaii Mar 2020
State Forecast Update: Coronavirus Presents Danger to Hawaii Tourism Feb 2020
Annual Hawaii Forecast: After a Cloudy 2019, New Year Looks a Bit Brighter Dec 2019
Hawaii Construction Forecast: Planned Projects Support Healthy Construction Outlook Oct 2019
State Forecast Update: Already Weak, Hawaii’s Prospects Look Increasingly Dicey Sep 2019
County Forecast: Counties see synchronized slowing May 2019
State Forecast Update: Recent data confirm weaker growth May 2019
State Forecast Update: Economy slows markedly. Is more in store? Mar 2019
Annual Hawaii Forecast: Moderation Ahead as Business Cycle Matures Dec 2018
Hawaii Construction Forecast: After Pullback, Construction Prospects Firm Sep 2018
State Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Growth Down, But Not Out Sep 2018
County Forecast: Healthy County Economies Face Growing Pains Jun 2018
State Forecast Update: Ready or Not, Hawaii is Set For More Growth May 2018
State Forecast Update: Not Much Lift From Tax Cuts in Hawaii’s Soaring Economy Mar 2018
Annual Hawaii Forecast: Hawaii’s Long Expansion Gets Global Economic Lift Dec 2017
Hawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Easing, But More in the Pipeline Sep 2017
State Forecast Update: Slowing Ongoing, Despite Arrivals Boom Sep 2017
County Forecast: Economies Still Growing, But Slowing May 2017
State Forecast Update: Growth Continues, For Now May 2017
State Forecast Update: As Growth Ebbs, Risks Swell Mar 2017
Annual Hawaii Forecast: Healthy Economy Faces New Administration Risks Dec 2016
Hawaii Construction Forecast: Building Cycle Approaches Peak Sep 2016
State Forecast Update: Hawaii Growth Downshifting Sep 2016
County Forecast: Counties Share Positive Outlook, But Face Individual Challenges May 2016
State Forecast Update: Growing in a Riskier World Feb 2016
Annual Hawaii Forecast: Expansion Will Continue, Despite Global Challenges Dec 2015
State Forecast Update: Except for Weather, Outlook Shines Sep 2015
County Forecast: Neighbor Island Tourism Still Has Room to Grow Jun 2015
Hawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Building Up Mar 2015
State Forecast Update: Hawaii on Steady Course for 2015 Feb 2015
Asia-Pacific Forecast: Moderate Regional Growth Faces Rising Risks Dec 2014
State Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Economy In Need of An Engine Oct 2014
Annual Hawaii Forecast: Hawaii Growth Slows As Global Risks Rise Aug 2014
County Forecast: Despite Lull in Tourism, County Expansions Continue May 2014
Hawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Upturn on Track Mar 2014
State Forecast Update: After Austerity, Road Ahead Will Be Smoother Feb 2014
Asia-Pacific Forecast: Pacific Rim Will Edge Forward After Weak 2013 Dec 2013
State Forecast Update: No Shutdown For Hawaii Growth Oct 2013
Annual Hawaii Forecast: Expansion to Strengthen Despite Washington Worries Aug 2013
County Forecast: Growth Accelerates Statewide May 2013
Hawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Upswing Picks Up Speed Mar 2013
State Forecast Update: Expansion Shifts Into Higher Gear Feb 2013
Asia-Pacific Forecast: Developing Countries Buoy Asian Growth Dec 2012
State Forecast Update: Tourism Shines, Construction Clouds Lifting Nov 2012
Annual Hawaii Forecast: Tourism Hot, But Broader Growth Still Elusive Jul 2012
County Forecast: Jobs Still Lag in County Recoveries May 2012
State Forecast Update: Visitor Industry Still Leading Recovery May 2012
Hawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Edging Toward Recovery Mar 2012
State Forecast Update: Some Improvement, After Disappointing 2011 Feb 2012
Asia-Pacific Forecast: Hawaii in the Asia-Pacific Century Dec 2011
State Forecast Update: Hawaii in Pause Mode Nov 2011
Annual Hawaii Forecast: With Hawaii Growth Slow, US Risk Looms Large Sep 2011
County Forecast: Uneven Recovery Continues May 2011
State Forecast Update: Japanese Quake Won’t Derail Recovery May 2011
State Forecast Update: Rail Will Add to Momentum Feb 2011
Construction Forecast: Rail Construction Will Spur Industry Pick-Up Feb 2011
State Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Two-Speed Recovery Dec 2010
Global Economic Forecast: World Recovery Falters Dec 2010
State Forecast Update: Strong Summer for Tourism Oct 2010
Construction Forecast: Construction Begins to Stabilize Sep 2010
County Economic Forecast: Counties Begin Recovery After Record Downturn Jun 2010
Annual Hawaii Economic Forecast: Hawaii Recovery Takes Hold Mar 2010

UHERO Briefs and Blogs

After the Maui wildfires: The road ahead Aug 2023
Tourism water use during the COVID-19 shutdown Sep 2022
COVID-19 infections, vaccines, and economic recovery Apr 2021
Estimating economic conditions during the COVID-19 crisis Oct 2020
Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery Sep 2020
Multipliers and the effectiveness of government policies Jun 2020
COVID-19: Developing Economic Recovery Scenarios for Hawaii May 2020
The Agony of Restaurant Workers Mar 2020
Little relief from Hawaii’s high cost of living Jan 2020
Tariff Peril May 2019
Benchmarking for a clearer employment picture Feb 2019
Is Fed Liftoff a Big Deal? Dec 2015
Gauging Home Affordability: The Challenge Dec 2015
Are We in a Low-Growth World? Jan 2015
Flying to Hawaii: Comparing the Cost and Frequency Across States Dec 2014
Now and Later: The Impact of the Government Shutdown Oct 2013
Are lodging costs starting to tame the tourist boom? May 2013
Latest Jobs Report Suggests Most Industries Recovering Apr 2013
Benchmark Revision of Non-Farm Payrolls Apr 2013
An Update on Inflation Expectations Mar 2013
Airlines Bet Big On Hawaii With 275,000 Additional Seats Mar 2013
Details of the Fiscal Cliff Deal Jan 2013
It’s the Economy, Stupid! (Or Is It?) Aug 2012
Some Perspectives on Another Weak Employment Report May 2012
Hawaii’s unemployment rate revised up for 2009–2011 Mar 2012
Oil Prices and Hawaii Travel Sep 2011
The Lag in Employment Recovery Jun 2011

Grants

Hawaiian Electric Companies: Custom Regional Economic Forecasting and Consulting Services. PI: P. Fuleky, CI: C. Bonham. Funding period: Jul 2023 – Jun 2026, $236,034.
UH Sea Grant (NOAA): Economic impacts of severe weather events. PI: P. Fuleky, CI: M. Coffman, V. Keener, N. Tarui. Funding period: Feb 2022 – Jan 2024, $145,684.
Hawaiian Electric Companies: Custom Regional Economic Forecasting and Consulting Services. PI: P. Fuleky, CI: C. Bonham. Funding period: Jul 2020 – Jun 2023, $217,475.
Hawaiian Electric Companies: Custom Regional Economic Forecasting and Consulting Services. PI: P. Fuleky, CI: C. Bonham. Funding period: Jul 2017 – Jun 2020, $212,603.
UH Sea Grant (NOAA): Economic Activity, Technological Progress, and Water Resource Utilization on Oahu. PI: P. Fuleky, CI: K. Burnett. Funding period: Feb 2018 – Jan 2020, $48,056.
Hawaiian Electric Companies: Custom Regional Economic Forecasting and Consulting Services. PI: C. Bonham, CI: P. Fuleky. Funding period: Jul 2014 – Jun 2017, $204,313.
UH Sea Grant (NOAA): Groundwater-Derived Nutrient Uptake in Coastal Ecosystems as a Driver of Shifts in the Accretion-Erosion Balance. PI: H. Dulai, CI: P. Fuleky. Funding period: Feb 2014 – Jan 2016, $92,150.

Conferences and Seminars

Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies, Budapest 2024
Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest 2024
Western Regional Science Association 62nd Annual Meeting, Hawaii 2023
7th Annual International Conference on Applied Economics, Kobe University (Online) 2022
Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference, Honolulu (Invited) 2022
Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference, Honolulu (Invited) 2021
Western Regional Science Association 60th Annual Meeting, Virtual/Online 2021
One World Symposium 2020 — Bernoulli Society and Institute of Mathematical Statistics (Moderator) 2020
Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference, Honolulu (Invited) 2019
Association for University Business and Economic Research, Salt Lake City, UT 2018
Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference, Honolulu (Invited) 2018
Bank of Thailand, Bangkok 2017
Corvinus University, Budapest 2017
Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest 2017
Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference, Honolulu (Invited) 2016
6th International Conference on Tourism, Naples, Italy 2016
Western Regional Science Association 55th Annual Meeting, Hawaii (Invited) 2016
Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference, Honolulu (Invited) 2015
21st International Panel Data Conference, Budapest 2015
University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Honolulu 2015
Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference, Honolulu (Invited) 2014
Society for the Study of Emerging Markets EuroConference, Budapest 2014
International Association for Applied Econometrics Annual Conference, London 2014
Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 22nd Annual Symposium, New York 2014
Western Economic Association International 88th Annual Conference, Seattle 2013
Association for University Business and Economic Research, Honolulu 2012
32nd International Symposium on Forecasting, Boston 2012
Conference in Honor of Charles Nelson, University of Washington, Seattle (Invited) 2012
Western Regional Science Association 51st Annual Meeting, Kauai 2012
University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Honolulu 2011
Western Economic Association International 85th Annual Conference, Vancouver 2009
University of Washington, Seattle 2009
University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Honolulu 2009

Outreach and Media

Invited presentations

Western Regional Science Association; CFA Society of Hawaii; Japan-America Institute of Management Science; Bank of Hawaii; Civil Beat (webinar); Hawaii Sea Grant (podcast); Hawaii Tourism Authority; Hawaii Coffee Company; Hawaii Economic Association; Research Corporation of the University of Hawaii; Honolulu Board of Realtors; Association of Pacific Ports; Department of Human Services; Manoa Elementary School; Kamehameha Schools.

Ad hoc economic analysis

Hawaii Public Radio; Honolulu Star Advertiser; Pacific Business News; KHON2; KITV; Construction Preview; Hawaii Business Magazine; Kaleo; West Hawaii Today; Travel Weekly; Civil Beat; Tennessean; National Park Service; Economic Recovery Forum of the Federal Emergency Management Agency; Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling; Newsweek Magazine.

Work of General Interest Published Online

Slides for the textbook Forecasting: Principles and Practice by Hyndman and Athanasopoulos 2014
Option Pricing with S+ FinMetrics (Technical Report) 2007
Anatomy of Cobb-Douglas Type Production/Utility Functions in Three Dimensions (Mimeo) 2006
Anatomy of CES Type Production/Utility Functions in Three Dimensions (Mimeo) 2006

Referee

The Review of Economics and Statistics; Journal of International Money and Finance; Journal of Banking and Finance; Journal of Money, Credit and Banking; Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics; Journal of Environmental Economics and Management; Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists; Asian Economic Journal; Annals of Tourism Research; Tourism Analysis; Czech Journal of Economics and Finance; Emerging Markets Finance and Trade; Contemporary Economic Policy; Applied Economics; Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events; International Economics; Economic Modelling; Empirical Economics; Emerging Markets Review; Economics of Education Review; Humanities and Social Sciences Communications; The Economic Record; Environmental Monitoring and Assessment.

Professional Affiliations

International Association for Applied Econometrics; Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics; Italian Econometric Association; Society for the Study of Emerging Markets; Western Economic Association International; International Institute of Forecasters; Regional Science Association International; Association for University Business and Economic Research; Hawaii Economic Association (Member of the board of directors; Member of the conference committee 2016–17, 2021).

University Service at UH

Senator in the Mānoa Faculty Senate

Member of the committee on faculty service. 2016 — 2017

Campus-wide oral communication assessment committee

Set performance expectations for UH Mānoa seniors. 2015 — 2016

School of Travel Industry Management

Member of the faculty personnel committee. 2016

Department of Urban and Regional Planning

Member of the faculty personnel committee. 2022

Department of Economics

Contributor to the 5-year program review. 2015
In charge of the weekly seminar series. 2015 — 2017
In charge of communication/outreach/website/working papers. 2014 — 2016, 2022 — 2024
In charge of software and equipment requests. 2013 — 2016, 2020 — 2022
Member of the graduate committee; admissions; student database development. 2011 — 2016, 2023 — 2025
Member of the undergraduate committee. 2018 — 2020, 2022 — 2023

UHERO

Chair of the forecast committee; in charge of forecasting methodology development. 2012 — present
Member of the recruitment and faculty personnel committee. 2016 — present
Chair of the faculty personnel committee. 2016 — 2017
Member of the data committee; in charge of data management and workflow. 2011 — present

Languages and Software

English (fluent), Hungarian (fluent), Slovak (fluent), Czech (fluent), German (advanced).
R, Python, C, Git, Gekko, EViews, Aremos, LaTeX, macOS, Microsoft Office.